Tariffs & Policy
Percentage or Per Kilo: Why the Shape of a Duty Matters
Two duties can raise the same revenue and land very differently. The difference is whether the charge tracks value or quantity.
Sunil Bharadwaj
Editor, Trade War China
Sunil edits Trade War China and prefers a shipping manifest to a press release.
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25 articles
Tariffs & Policy
The Barriers That Are Not Tariffs and Often Bite Harder
Duties are visible, published and comparable. Almost everything else that restricts trade is none of those things.
Tariffs & Policy
Tariff-Rate Quotas: Two Prices for the Same Product
A quota that does not forbid imports but makes the ones beyond a threshold much more expensive. The interesting question is who…
Supply Chains
The Bullwhip: How a Small Demand Wobble Becomes a Factory Shutdown
Order volatility grows as it travels upstream. The amplification is caused by rational behaviour at every step, which is what makes…
Supply Chains
The Real Cost of Adding a Second Supplier
Everyone agrees dual sourcing is prudent. Fewer people cost it properly, which is why so many critical parts still have one source.
Supply Chains
Why Tracing a Product Back to Its Source Is Harder Than It Sounds
Consumers, regulators and buyers increasingly want to know where material came from. The chain rarely keeps records in a form that…
Supply Chains
When a Component Needs Permission Before It Can Cross a Border
Some goods move under licence rather than under a duty rate. The mechanism is entirely separate from tariffs and behaves…
Manufacturing
Tooling: The Capital That Cannot Be Moved Cheaply
Moulds, dies and fixtures are made for one part on one machine. They are also one of the strongest anchors holding production in…
Manufacturing
Certification Locks a Supplier In Long After Price Stops Mattering
In regulated industries the approved supplier list is the real constraint. Changing it is a project, not a purchase order.
Manufacturing
Diversifying Production Without an Ecosystem to Move Into
Adding a second manufacturing location is straightforward for assembly and much harder for everything that feeds it.
Shipping & Logistics
The Steel Box That Decided Which Goods Could Be Traded
Containerisation is usually described as making shipping cheaper. Its more important effect was making entirely new categories of…
Shipping & Logistics
Why Ports Congest, and What a Crane Move Actually Measures
A port is a queue with equipment attached. Understanding where the queue forms explains most of what looks like chaos.
Shipping & Logistics
The Bill of Lading, and Why a Document Can Be the Cargo
In international trade, whoever holds the right piece of paper can claim the goods. That property makes the document a financial…
Markets & Commodities
Why Commodity Supply Always Arrives Late
High prices attract investment, investment takes years, and by the time capacity arrives the price that justified it has usually…
Markets & Commodities
Thrifting and Substitution: How High Prices Change the Recipe
When an input gets expensive, engineers find ways to use less of it or to use something else. The change is usually permanent.
Markets & Commodities
What Currency a Commodity Is Priced In, and Why It Matters
The same physical cargo can get more expensive for one buyer and cheaper for another on the same day. The difference is entirely…
Markets & Commodities
Small Shortfalls, Large Price Moves: The Role of Inventory
A market missing a small fraction of its supply can see prices move dramatically. What buffers the gap is the stock that already…
How We Got Here
Comparative Advantage: The Idea and What It Never Claimed
The oldest argument in trade economics is also the most frequently misquoted. What it actually says is narrower and more…
How We Got Here
What the Postwar Trade System Was Designed to Do
The rules governing world trade were written by people with a specific and recent memory of what happens when trade collapses.
How We Got Here
Bretton Woods and the Money Behind the Goods
Trade needs a way to settle payments across currencies. The monetary arrangements built after the war shaped commerce as much as…
How We Got Here
Why Bilateral Trade Balances Overstate What They Measure
The figure counting exports between two countries records the full value of goods that several countries helped to make.
How We Got Here
How Quotas Decided Where Clothes Were Made
For decades, textile and clothing trade ran under a quota system rather than ordinary rules. Its removal rearranged an entire…
How We Got Here
The Standards That Made Interchangeable Parts Possible
Before a bolt from one country could fit a machine from another, somebody had to agree what the thread meant. That agreement is…
How We Got Here
How Industrial Capability Migrates Between Countries
Industries have moved from country to country in a recognisable sequence for two centuries. The pattern is gradual and the reasons…
How We Got Here
Why Trade Grew Faster Than Output for Decades
For a long period, world trade expanded more quickly than world production. Part of that was real and part was an artefact of how…